Expenditures Grow 4.5Percent in Growth Scenario. Figure 23 compares our estimates of expenditures under the growth scenario and the recession scenario. Under our economic growth scenario, we assume 4.5 percent growth in overall General Fund expenditures between and . This rate reflects, in particular, significant growth in health and human service (HHS) program spending. Under the growth scenario, we assume spending on major HHS programs reaches $45.2 billion in , an 8.1 percent average annual increase from . The bulk of this increase is related to expenditures in , the state’s health insurance program for Californians. Between and , we assume expenditures in this program grow from nearly $18 billion to over $27 billion in the growth scenario.


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